December 30, 2024
As we move into a new year I thought I’d note some trends from 2024 and see where we are headed. Over 2024 we saw Elon Musk remove or change many of his platform’s moderation settings so influencing user experiences, pivot X into a US election-winning machine for Donald Trump, and use his platform to attack opponents, governments he doesn’t like, and magnify and personally promote both mis and disinformation at scale.
This alienated a significant number of Twitter / X users, often those with many years on the platform, so after the winning of the US Election by President-Elect Trump, millions flooded to Bluesky which at my last glance was heading towards 26 million users.
As with Twitter, Bluesky was founded by Jack Dorsey, seemingly as a Twitter alike, but with different technologies, approaches to governance and potential board / ownership protections. The weekend after the US Election, Jack Dorsey resigned from the Bluesky board and appeared to divest himself of any holding or further connections to the platform.
As one star falls, another rises?
Perhaps, but probably not. X is now closer to a huge version of Trump’s Truth Social than a reflection of wide opinion, and along with Rumble, Vice President-Elect, JD Vance’s VC firm’s, initially funded YouTube clone, but for more polarised content, all of these platforms now pretty much promote and magnify the politics, news, and opinion of the incoming US Government or allies. On the 22nd of December, it was reported that Rumble received a $775M ‘strategic investment’ from Tether (the cryptocurrency company). High stakes indeed.
Meanwhile at Facebook, after Mark Zuckerberg visited Mar-a-Lago for meetings with the President-Elect, Meta made a statement to the effect, that Facebook felt it had been too harsh on content moderation around the prior US election’s January 6th insurrection. Meta has also now said it will be enabling AI bot accounts that could have their own profiles, post, like, and otherwise interact with other Facebook and Instagram users. I wonder who will regulate their opinions? Or whether they will be open to paid or even transparent influence?
TikTok has also been in the news. It looked like it was going to be banned in the US if not divested from its Chinese owners to a US buyer, but it’s reported that Trump is moving to reverse or stall this as some suggest he feels TikTok to be favorable to him.
In Albania, the government has just banned Tiktok completely for a year after a fatal stabbing.
The Australian government is also trying to limit platforms’ influence, firstly around a ban on social media use for those under 16, which while seeming a blunt attempt, does show serious intent and a recognition of social media harms, and also in regulations around financial advertising needing to comply with Australian financial advertising regulations. I wonder if they may make some similar moves around crypto marketing via social media in 2025?
As a personal anecdote, we had some Australian cousins visit us over Christmas. A family of five comprising three daughters ages twelve, fourteen and sixteen. Their parents are a GP and a teacher. The girls were mostly unconcerned. Some friends were supposedly upset, but overall it didn't seem important to them. The teacher was pleased as TikTok had been responsible for some very unpleasant behaviors among students, and the GP was thrilled because as he said "I have to treat the aftermath, from depression to bulimia, self-harm and worse". They very much felt "We don't let kids watch the TV they want, why is this any different?" I had to agree.
Here in Europe, Romania has annulled its recent election, citing Russian disinformation promoted primarily via TikTok and Facebook. It will be interesting to see if the UK will attempt any further regulation, given its relative vulnerability adrift between both the EU and the US.
What this all means is that the users of the various platforms are now more siloed than they were before, and the information diets users consume are likely more directed at them to influence, to a greater or lesser extent, depending on the platform and how individual's interests and personal preferences are curated.
In 2025 I expect to see more of the same polarisation, which from an Exorde perspective makes it more important for our customers to be able to see and track narratives or topics simultaneously across many platforms, so they can prepare, react, or profit from these effects.
After all, if you only analyse X you really aren't getting a real picture.
I also predict more attempted regulation around the world, particularly across the EU. After all these platforms are huge, fully operational (so far mostly unregulated), media-alike organisations informing the lives of billions of sovereign countries' citizens, and the effect of these platforms in magnifying issues is having real-world, political, civil disobedience, and tragic effects.
To me, this is today’s digital extension of an informational, hybridised, global trade and sovereignty war. China, Russia, the US, and the EU vying for control of their own citizen's information diets, while simultaneously under attack. And, whatever happens, the platforms are now cemented as the most important infospheres of our time.
If all of this sounds bad to you, social media and digital mass communication are still (IMHO) some of the greatest advances we’ve made in the past 30 years, and like all new mass communication or publishing advances, we as individuals, governments and societies are going to have to endure some periods of adjustment as the first movers and billionaire Titans wrestle each other and our governments for control of the enormous power and wealth such advances create.
Let me know what you think in the comments. I remain your eternal optimist.
Happy NY to all. Have an excellent 2025!
-Tristan
Tristan Palmer is Co-CEO of Exorde Labs, the creators of the Exorde Network which reads and analyses billions of public social media and news posts, in real-time, globally, across all platforms. Exorde's data is used by a wide range of entities, for disinformation and narrative analysis, osint, cybersecurity, event monitoring, polling, news, media, politics, to financial and digital asset trading, risk management and marketing. Exorde knows what the world is saying.
Reach out to hello@exordelabs.com for unique demos & data trials.
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